Details for: 3670-E (Part 1 of 1).pdf


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Russell G. Worden
Managing Director, State Regulatory Operations

October 6, 2017
ADVICE 3670-E
(U 338-E)
PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION OF THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA
ENERGY DIVISION
Adjustments to Photovoltaic and Electric Vehicle Forecasts to
be Used in Southern California Edison Company’s 2017-2018
Distribution Planning

SUBJECT:

PURPOSE
Pursuant to the Assigned Commissioner’s Ruling (ACR) issued on August 9, 2017, SCE
is filing this Advice Letter to submit adjustments to the forecasts for (i) Photovoltaic (PV)
Resources, and (i) Electric Vehicles (EV). SCE will use the adjusted forecasts in SCE’s
2017-2018 distribution planning process.
BACKGROUND
The forecasting of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) (which include PV and EV), and
use of these forecasts in IOU distribution planning, is the subject of Sub-track 1 of Track
3 (policy) of R.14-08-013 et al., the Distribution Resource Plan (DRP) proceeding.
Over the course of 2017, numerous activities discussed DER forecasting and how IOUs
use these forecasts for distribution planning. These activities included a workshop,
numerous meetings of an informal stakeholder Working Group established specifically
to discuss these topics, multiple rulings, and multiple filings submitted by the IOUs and
other parties. These activities culminated in the ACR issued August 9, 2017.1
For the 2017-18 planning cycle, the August 9 ACR required IOUs to use the DER
forecasts from the 2016 IEPR Update, “with limited adjustments to PV and EV
forecasts.”2 In explaining the potential need for adjustments, the ACR recognized that
the 2016 IEPR uses DER forecast data from 2015.3 Thus, the DER forecasts will be
over two years old at the time planning begins. The ACR therefore determined that “the
PV forecast may be adjusted to account for policy changes since 2015”4 and “the EV
1
2
3
4

For a detailed procedural background, see the ACR at p.4.
ACR at p. 2.
ACR at p. 3.
ACR at p. 3.

P.O. Box 800

8631 Rush Street

Rosemead, California 91770

(626) 302-4177

Fax (626) 302-6396





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ADVICE 3670-E (U 338-E) -2- October 6, 2017 forecast may be adjusted to account for the latest public data regard[ing] ZEV adoption and load growth.”5 The ACR directed the IOUs to “submit these adjustments by Tier 1 advice letter within 60 days.”6 Consistent with the direction provided in the ACR, SCE hereby submits adjustments to the PV and EV forecasts. PROPOSED ADJUSTMENTS TO PV AND EV FORECASTS Forecasts utilized for distribution planning should represent the best estimate of DER adoption and future load growth at the distribution substation and feeder level. This includes the most up to date assumptions at the time distribution planning commences so that grid needs are informed to the best extent possible. This will support providing safe, reliable, and affordable energy to ratepayers served from the distribution system. For the PV forecast, SCE is proposing to adjust the 2016 IEPR PV forecast to account for Zero Net Energy (ZNE), a state policy impact that the 2016 IEPR forecast did not explicitly incorporate.7 Given the impact of the state’s policy for future ZNE on the Solar PV forecast, SCE proposes to modify the 2016 IEPR forecast to include an estimation of future incremental solar PV adoptions driven by ZNE policy. To determine an appropriate adjustment to the 2016 IEPR, SCE began the process by using housing start data from Moody’s Analytics, the same third-party forecast the CEC relies on for establishing new single-family housing starts between 2020 and 2027 within SCE’s service territory.8 SCE then applied an estimate of the average PV installation size expected in compliance with ZNE building standards of 3.5 kW per installation.9 SCE also assumed a compliance level of 85%.10 In addition, SCE accounted for the small percentage of organic adoptions for new homes in the 2016 IEPR by subtracting that amount from SCE’s total estimated ZNE forecast to avoid double counting.11 As a result, the final total PV forecast adjustment would add 597 MW (nameplate capacity) to the IEPR PV forecast between 2020 and 2027. This represents an 11% increase in cumulative installed capacity by 2027. Table 1 depicts the 2016 IEPR forecast, and the new forecast SCE proposes to use in the upcoming 2017-18 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 IBID. ACR p. 12. CEC Staff intends to incorporate ZNE into the 2017 IEPR as stated at the DER Growth Scenarios Workshop on February 10, 2017. SCE’s relies on the forecast of new single family housing starts from Moody’s Analytics for each of the metropolitan statistical areas served by SCE. SCE further reduced this number by 80% to reflect the portion of these areas which SCE does not serve based on historical share of single family starts from 2007 to 2016. The installation size is based on anticipated compliance with 2019 Title 24 standards for a 2700 square foot single family detached home. Both SCE and CEC ZNE experts expect high levels of compliance rates for future new single-family constructions of 80% to 90%; SCE therefore used the assumption of 85%. This data was provided to SCE by CEC staff on 10/2/2017.
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ADVICE 3670-E (U 338-E) -3- October 6, 2017 distribution planning cycle. Additional data and calculations supporting the values presented in Table 1 can be found in Appendix A. Table 1: Solar PV Forecast Cumulative Installed Nameplate Capacity (MW) Forecast (MW) 2016 IEPR ZNE Adjustment Proposed Forecast 2020 2614 86 2700 2021 2881 165 3046 2022 3195 239 3434 2023 3550 313 3863 2024 3939 386 4325 2025 4373 456 4829 2026 4834 522 5356 2027 5296 597 5893 For light-duty EV forecast, SCE’s adjustment reflects changes that have occurred following development of the 2016 IEPR including the CARB Scoping Plan, the latest EV adoption data in SCE’s service territory, as well as CEC’s updated analysis on average future EV energy consumption. SCE’s first adjustment was to update the historical number of vehicles in the 2016 IEPR forecast based on the latest actual adoption data. Then, SCE utilized the current number of EVs in SCE territory anticipated through the end of 2017 and assumed a linear growth rate to meet the 2030 vehicle target set by the CARB Scoping Plan12. In addition, SCE applied the latest updated information from CEC on future EVs including the projected split between Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) and corresponding kWh per vehicle consumptions as part of the 2017 IEPR development process. Based on the steps described above, SCE’s overall EV adjustments to the IEPR EV forecast are shown below. SCE’s EV adjustment would lead to an increase of 929 GWh or 35% by 2027 over the 2016 IEPR. Additional data and calculations supporting the values presented in Table 2 can be found in Appendix B. Table 2: EV Forecast with Adjustments (GWh) GWh 2016 IEPR Mid Demand Case Incremental to Add to IEPR 2016 IEPR with Adjustments 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 364 457 580 729 921 1,148 1,413 1,732 2,025 2,298 2,612 111 370 587 753 871 951 1,000 983 974 971 929 475 827 1,167 1,483 1,793 2,100 2,414 2,715 2,999 3,269 3,541 UPDATED DER FORECASTS ARE IMPORTANT TO DISTRIBUTION PLANNING Given the necessary focus in Distribution Planning on near term reliability issues, forecasted energy consumption at a distribution substation or feeder has much larger impact on potential grid upgrades in comparison to the transmission system. The forecasts used for distribution planning ultimately inform the investments required to maintain a safe, reliable, and affordable distribution grid. Utilizing outdated forecast data leads to an outdated assessment of grid needs and identification of non-optimal 12 https://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/scopingplan.htm
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ADVICE 3670-E (U 338-E) -4- October 6, 2017 solutions. This could ultimately result in higher costs to ratepayers. Therefore, it is imperative that distribution forecasts be based on the most up-to-date assumptions possible to develop the most up-to-date grid needs and most cost-effective solutions. TIER DESIGNATION Pursuant to the August 9 ACR, this advice letter is submitted with a Tier 1 designation. EFFECTIVE DATE This advice letter will become effective October 26, 2017, 20 days after the filing date. NOTICE Anyone wishing to protest this advice filing may do so by letter via U.S. Mail, facsimile, or electronically, any of which must be received no later than 20 days after the date of this advice filing. Protests should be submitted to: CPUC, Energy Division Attention: Tariff Unit 505 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, California 94102 E-mail: EDTariffUnit@cpuc.ca.gov Copies should also be mailed to the attention of the Director, Energy Division, Room 4004 (same address above). In addition, protests and all other correspondence regarding this advice letter should also be sent by letter and transmitted via facsimile or electronically to the attention of: Russell G. Worden Managing Director, State Regulatory Operations Southern California Edison Company 8631 Rush Street Rosemead, California 91770 Telephone (626) 302-4177 Facsimile: (626) 302-6396 E-mail: AdviceTariffManager@sce.com
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ADVICE 3670-E (U 338-E) -5- October 6, 2017 Laura Genao Managing Director, State Regulatory Affairs c/o Karyn Gansecki Southern California Edison Company 601 Van Ness Avenue, Suite 2030 San Francisco, California 94102 Facsimile: (415) 929-5544 E-mail: Karyn.Gansecki@sce.com There are no restrictions on who may file a protest, but the protest shall set forth specifically the grounds upon which it is based and must be received by the deadline shown above. In accordance with General Rule 4 of GO 96-B, SCE is serving copies of this advice filing to the interested parties shown on the attached GO 96-B and R.14-08-013 service lists. Address change requests to the GO 96-B service list should be directed by electronic mail to AdviceTariffManager@sce.com or at (626) 302-4039. For changes to all other service lists, please contact the Commission’s Process Office at (415) 703-2021 or by electronic mail at Process_Office@cpuc.ca.gov. Further, in accordance with Public Utilities Code Section 491, notice to the public is hereby given by filing and keeping the advice filing at SCE’s corporate headquarters. To view other SCE advice letters filed with the Commission, log on to SCE’s web site at https://www.sce.com/wps/portal/home/regulatory/advice-letters. For questions, please contact Steve Coulter at (626) 302-4988 or by electronic mail at steven.w.coulter@sce.com. Southern California Edison Company /s/ Russell G. Worden Russell G. Worden RGW:sc:jm Enclosures
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CALIFORNIA PUBLIC UTILITIES COMMISSION ADVICE LETTER FILING SUMMARY ENERGY UTILITY MUST BE COMPLETED BY UTILITY (Attach additional pages as needed) Company name/CPUC Utility No.: Southern California Edison Company (U 338-E) Utility type: Contact Person: Darrah Morgan  ELC  GAS  PLC  HEAT Phone #: (626) 302-2086  WATER E-mail: Darrah.Morgan@sce.com E-mail Disposition Notice to: AdviceTariffManager@sce.com EXPLANATION OF UTILITY TYPE ELC = Electric PLC = Pipeline GAS = Gas HEAT = Heat (Date Filed/ Received Stamp by CPUC) WATER = Water Advice Letter (AL) #: 3670-E Tier Designation: 1 Adjustments to Photovoltaic and Electric Vehicle Forecasts to be Used in Southern California Subject of AL: Edison Company’s 2017-2018 Distribution Planning Keywords (choose from CPUC listing): Compliance AL filing type:  Monthly  Quarterly  Annual  One-Time  Other If AL filed in compliance with a Commission order, indicate relevant Decision/Resolution #: Does AL replace a withdrawn or rejected AL? If so, identify the prior AL: Summarize differences between the AL and the prior withdrawn or rejected AL: Confidential treatment requested?  Yes  No If yes, specification of confidential information: Confidential information will be made available to appropriate parties who execute a nondisclosure agreement. Name and contact information to request nondisclosure agreement/access to confidential information: Resolution Required?  Yes  No Requested effective date: 10/26/17 No. of tariff sheets: -0- Estimated system annual revenue effect: (%): Estimated system average rate effect (%): When rates are affected by AL, include attachment in AL showing average rate effects on customer classes (residential, small commercial, large C/I, agricultural, lighting). Tariff schedules affected: N/A Service affected and changes proposed1: Pending advice letters that revise the same tariff sheets: 1 Discuss in AL if more space is needed. None
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Protests and all other correspondence regarding this AL are due no later 20 days after the date of this filing, unless otherwise authorized by the Commission, and shall be sent to: CPUC, Energy Division Attention: Tariff Unit 505 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, California 94102 E-mail: EDTariffUnit@cpuc.ca.gov Russell G. Worden Managing Director, State Regulatory Operations Southern California Edison Company 8631 Rush Street Rosemead, California 91770 Telephone: (626) 302-4177 Facsimile: (626) 302-6396 E-mail: AdviceTariffManager@sce.com Laura Genao Managing Director, State Regulatory Affairs c/o Karyn Gansecki Southern California Edison Company 601 Van Ness Avenue, Suite 2030 San Francisco, California 94102 Facsimile: (415) 929-5544 E-mail: Karyn.Gansecki@sce.com
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